Men’s Overview

If I had to summarize the 2019 Spartan Race season so far, I’d say that this is the year where the “best of the rest” finally caught up to the “historical best.” Raise your hand if you thought back in January that Johnny Luna-Lima, Ryan Kempson, and Tyler Veerman would all finish ranked in the top-5 of the US National Series (USNS)? I’m sure you also thought they’d all have at least a .500 record head-to-head against Robert Killian and Ryan Woods, too, right? Ok, put your hand down, you liar.

The same 7 men dominated Spartan Race from 2016-2018: Ryan Atkins, Robert Killian, Hobie Call, Cody Moat, Hunter McIntyre, Jon Albon, and usually Ryan Woods. They were on a different level and rarely lost to anyone outside that small list of names. So how rare was it for someone else to beat them (even once) before this year? Very.

Combined, those “historical top-7” men ran exactly 100 total Spartan Races in 2017 and 2018. Only 15 different people worldwide managed to beat just one of those top-7 guys even once last year at any distance (not counting Robert Killian running Iceland with a weight vest). Only 4 men who beat ANY of those top-7 men in multiple races both years 2017-2018 (Angel Quintero, Ryan Kent, Mark Batres, and Veejay Jones). That’s insane.

Then something happened this year: the “historical top-7” men started losing to new people. In just 5 months of racing this year, SEVEN separate guys have taken down at least 2 of the “historical top-7” in at least 3 separate races. Keep in mind that Hunter and Hobie aren’t active on the Spartan scene anymore, and Cody rarely races. That means fewer chances to beat those “historical top-7” men this year. Is age or too much racing finally catching up to Woods and Killian? Was this new crop of OCR stars really talented all along, but it just took them a few years to master the sport?  It’s probably a combination of the two, but more likely the latter.

The only certainty about this season is that the competition on the men’s side is at an all-time high and will continue to get deeper next year. But what about the women’s side?

Women’s Overview

On the women’s side, it’s been all about Lindsay Webster and Nicole Mericle. Nicole started the year on fire with two wins, including a nearly 7-minute win in Jacksonville. Since then, Lindsay has been unbeatable, winning each of the last 3 US National Series races by at least 2:50.

However, just like on the men’s side, several women have tried to disrupt the status quo and have challenged most of the “Fab 5” all season. Rose Wetzel has made a comeback with a 4th-place ranking in the US National Series standings. Leigh Anne Wasteney has finished in every position 4th – 8th in the 5 US National Series races. Unfortunately, Rebecca Hammond has dealt with injuries since Seattle after a breakout 2018 campaign, but her ability is undeniable.

Two new women showed potential to be the next Rebecca Hammond and finally break up the “Fab 5” at the start of the year: Nell Rojas and Tia Reagan. However, Nell (understandably) decided to give up on OCR to focus on the 2020 Olympic marathon trials, while Tia is still in the growing stages of the sport (similar to what Ryan Woods went through a few years ago).

Want to go even deeper into the (Jack Bauer Stats) woods? Click here.

…this is a continuation of a previous article.

Depth on the women’s side is higher than it’s ever been, with 8-10 women capable of a top-5 finish at any major race. How does it compare with the best men, though? Do women actually have better depth this year?

US National Series

To answer this, I looked at how far back of the winner each of the top-20 racers finished at each of the 5 US National Series races. In general, performance drops off noticeably around 20th place, especially on the women’s side, so I mainly wanted to focus on the best of the best racers. No surprise, those 5 races have the highest strength of schedule ratings so far this year for both genders.

Rather than give you a huge table with 60+ lines, here’s a quick overview of the time gap between 1st and 5th place for both genders at the 5 USNS races.

As you can see, the time gap between the winner and 5th place is much different for each gender. The fastest female (Lindsay or Nicole) beat her nearest competitor by nearly 3 minutes in all but 1/5 USNS races. How would the men’s results have changed if the time gaps switched genders? In other words, look at Jacksonville on the women’s side. Second place (Lindsay) finished 6:46 behind the winner (Nicole). How many men finished within 6:46 of the winner?

Amazingly, 15 men finished within 6:46 of the winner (Ryan Kempson) in Jacksonville, as shown in the table above. Go through the rest of the races and you’ll see that (on average) the 7th place male finished just as close to the male winner as the 3rd place female finished relative to the female winner. Based on time gap, the 20th place male would (on average) finish in 8th place had men had the same time gap as women that same race.

The gender time gap is more obvious when you see it on a graph. Notice how the two lines aren’t parallel and separate going to the right? That means that both gender’s performances aren’t consistent the “worse” you place (not that 15th at a USNS race is bad). There’s already a 10% gender difference at only 6th place, and the difference only gets bigger after that. On average, the 20th place male only finishes 15.7% slower than the male winner, while the 20th place female is 30.5% slower than the female winner.

Gender Differences Through the Years

Percent of the winner is a better ratio to account for fast and slow finishing times at every race distance from Stadium to Ultra Beast, though. Fortunately for you, I’ve spent countless hours compiling Spartan Race results since 2011. The data shows that the average female Spartan Race winner has historically finished only 79.1% as fast as the men’s winner that same race worldwide since 2011. In other words, if the male winner in a race is 1:00, then the female winner who finished 79.1% as fast would finish in roughly 1:16.

This graph probably looks crazy, but hopefully that math example above makes things clearer. Let’s be real: you probably would’ve stopped reading this article long ago if you weren’t interested in complex data. Values for the % of winner female vs. male are summarized in the table below the graphs for each region and year.

Conclusion

This relative ratio of female winning time vs. male winning time has remained pretty consistent worldwide, with most years and regions historically ranging from the upper-70s to low-80s. The fact that these ratios have stayed consistent means that the top male AND female racers have improved proportionately through the years (at least within a few % of each other). Both genders have stepped up big time this year, but the men’s field is still deeper than the women’s field by a good margin.

Look back through the early years of Spartan Race for the men, specifically. Most of the 10 best racers not named Hobie or Cody from 2011-2014 would struggle to place in the top-10 at major races these days. It took about a decade for depth on the men’s side to reach its current level. I’d argue that the women’s side is a few years behind the men in terms of depth, meaning the current state of the women’s field is right around where the men were in 2014 or so. I bet within only a couple years, several new faces will join the sport, resulting in the women’s field being as deep as the men’s field is today.

There’s no such thing as a “gimme” podium anymore at major US races for the historical top racers unless your name is Ryan Atkins, Lindsay Webster, or Nicole Mericle, as they’re the only athletes to have more than 2 podiums in the 5 USNS races this year (all were 5/5, actually). No matter which era those three would have competed in, they still would have ended up towards the top. Earning a podium won’t get any easier going forward, though, due to all the “new” racers making a name for themselves this year. It’s not like guys such as Robert Killian, Ryan Woods, or Cody Moat suddenly aren’t great anymore because they still have some of the highest odds of winning any race they enter. The rest of the field has simply gotten that much better, which gives the illusion that the “historical best” aren’t as good as they once were.

The top women probably have a few more years left to earn relatively “easy” podiums at major races, but that window is closing rapidly. Before you know it, the women’s field will be just as chaotic as the men’s field this year. Good luck predicting the top-5 finishers each race once that happens.

*Update – All Warrior Dash participants with a canceled race ticket, can race Spartan for free. Continue reading for details.

Anyone else can sign up for a 2019 or 2020 Spartan Race Here.

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Last night, we reported the closing of Warrior Dash. Additional news has come to light that we want to share with you.

We recorded this interview with Spartan Founder Joe Desena at 3:00 PM EST this afternoon.

Learn what the future of Warrior Dash is, and how Spartan will play a role.